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Before the interest rate meeting, let's start with the conclusion: although some forecasts predict a 30% chance of a rate hike today, a rate hike is basically impossible, and even the key market bet on a September rate hike is also basically impossible. Currently, looking at the situation in the US stock market, if a rate hike occurs now, the financing environment will worsen + Q2 earnings pressure on US stocks, the US stock market will inevitably crash. Especially given that investors in the current US earnings reports expect companies to verify profitability and have raised future expectations, if the future financing environment deteriorates further, it will definitely be a clear blow to corporate stock prices. The US stock market is a bottom line that both US political parties must defend, followed by US Treasury bonds and the US dollar. Stocks, bonds, and currency are key factors that every president cannot ignore. So if any president causes the stock market to collapse, their approval rating will not be good, especially facing sensitive midterm elections. Trump is the least willing to see this situation. Looking at Waller, although he has his own ideas, in the short term he still cannot break free from Trump's restrictions and control. So even if the board members emphasize rate hike expectations, I believe Waller will try to maintain a balance. Regarding Waller's subsequent speeches, I think he will choose a balance point. Obviously, Waller's policy is to bring the market into an era of high interest rates + balance sheet reduction with limited liquidity, directing controllable liquidity towards the AI narrative and US stocks, supporting the current large narrative and valuation of US stocks. Conclusion verification: This is a major focus this week. After the Federal Reserve's decision and Waller's speech, tomorrow will see the June PCE report. This inflation data will further price in views on inflation and interest rate expectations. Moreover, the Fed is very likely to receive the June data in advance, so tonight's Fed decision and Waller's speech may already reflect the results of the June PCE data. Once inflation is verified, then comes the US GDP. Stable US economic data helps support the current US stock market trend. Whether the AI high valuation bubble can be supported depends on whether the US economy can provide support under the macro environment. Macro determines whether money is expensive; earnings reports determine whether money should be invested. In this environment, I think from Trump to Waller, all should avoid the US stock market entering a "Davis double kill" scenario. Looking at the financial markets, gold is strengthening, the dollar is weakening, and the 1-year US Treasury yield is falling. Clearly, before the rate decision, the market has already started pricing in no rate hike. Next, we will see Waller's performance! PS: Another reason Waller maintains high interest rates is that when central banks worldwide return to a rate hike trend, the current rates of the US dollar and US Treasuries have certain advantages. This can indirectly siphon global liquidity, which is beneficial for US dollar capital! So, neutrality, I believe, is the theme of Waller's speech tonight. If the board members are too hawkish, he will be responsible for balancing it, maintaining future high interest rate expectations but not allowing rate hikes to rise excessively, which would currently stimulate further declines in the US stock market #美联储即将公布利率决议