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Mulight沐光
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大家都觉得AI越来越便宜、越来越免费。但Google刚把今年AI开支调到了2050亿美元，比上季度又多了150亿。而且花的比赚的还多。
不是Google一家。Meta、Amazon、Microsoft这周陆续发财报，市场预期全是超支。Nvidia给OpenAI做了2500亿美元债务担保——分析师原话是"资金链紧张的信号，不亚于需求信号"。
背后的死结很简单：中国AI公司拿不到同等GPU，但模型照样能打。Google被迫降价竞争，收入不涨开支暴涨。所有人都在赌同一件事——先烧钱建数据中心，等对手死光了，活下来的就能赚钱。
问题是你用的那些免费AI工具，靠的就是这种烧钱模式撑着。如果这周几大巨头的财报全是"花太多赚太少"，你猜下一个开始收费的会是谁。
这周Meta、Amazon、Microsoft的财报，可以留意一下资本支出那一栏。
Mulight沐光
Big Tech AI Capital Expenditure Divergence — Market Split After Microsoft/Meta/Google Earnings
Key Data:
- Combined AI capex of $725 billion for the three companies over the next year
- Moody's warns of "unprecedented" spending threatening credit quality
- Data center lease contracts piled up to $850 billion
- But none of the three earnings reports crashed due to capex — Microsoft cloud growth over 30%, Meta provides AI ad ROI for the first time
Two algorithms for the same number — the bearish calculates when free cash flow will be crushed, the bullish calculates the infrastructure value in five years. Amazon Q2 is the final answer.
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