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Crypto stocks lead the rally, but my positions remain unchanged — because the signals aren't strong enough yet. Yesterday's big bullish candle in the US stock market was impressive, with the Nasdaq approaching historical highs. Coinbase +8.3%, MSTR +9.5% led the charge. Ceasefire + risk asset rally + crypto stocks outperforming the broader market — these three signals combined have many on social media shouting "institutions are back." But my judgment is: this looks more like a short-covering linked rebound rather than a systemic inflow of new capital. Breaking down some details: First, BTC is still around 68,000 and hasn't effectively broken through 70,000. If institutions were systematically reallocating crypto exposure, spot should move in sync or even lead crypto stocks, since stocks have better liquidity and larger volume — big money would first target spot and CME futures, then stocks. Yesterday, crypto stocks rose more than twice as much as BTC, indicating more of an emotional recovery in previously suppressed sectors rather than spot-driven buying. Second, the ceasefire news brought more "safe-haven capital inflow" rather than "risk appetite expansion." The easing of geopolitical conflict benefits growth stocks and crypto-related assets that were previously under pressure, reflecting a shift from defensive to offensive assets. But to push BTC past previous highs requires pure incremental capital, not just rotation. Third, Nasdaq approaching previous highs itself is a warning signal. This US stock rebound has gone quite far; near historical highs, any earnings or data below expectations could trigger profit-taking. Crypto stocks, as high-beta assets, can surge sharply but also fall just as fast. So I made no adjustments to my positions: · BTC and ETH spot holdings remain unchanged (60% of total portfolio), neither long nor short; · No additional crypto stocks added, as stock volatility currently offers no advantage over spot; · Keep 30% in stablecoins for flexibility, waiting for BTC to break above 72,000 with volume and hold before considering adding positions. In short: crypto stocks leading is an early signal, but just a "sentinel," not the "main force." I choose to wait rather than chase until spot confirms a breakout. How are you managing your positions?