Post

1. Current ETF Fund Status In the past week, $BTC BTC spot ETF net inflow reached $854 million, and ETH spot ETF net inflow was $245 million, totaling nearly $1.1 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since mid-April. This ended the previous continuous net outflow phase, confirming a phased return of institutional funds. However, two key points temper optimism: 1. This round is a restorative inflow, merely replenishing previously withdrawn positions without new large-scale incremental entry; on a full-year basis, ETFs still show cumulative net outflows, so a new institutional bull market has not yet begun. 2. Fund differentiation is clear: incremental funds prioritize BTC and ETH; $ETH ETF inflows are roughly only 30% of BTC’s, with ETH relying more on speculative trading and contract leverage, resulting in volatility much higher than BTC, which is one source of the $1900 resistance level mentioned earlier. In short: ETFs provide bottom support but are insufficient alone to drive a strong unilateral rally; macro liquidity remains the ceiling. 2. Two Major External Bearish Constraints Restrict the Relay Rally 1. Bank of Japan hawkish stance, ongoing yen carry trade unwind pressure Low-interest yen arbitrage funds are a global low-cost leverage source for risk assets. The Bank of Japan signaling accelerated rate hikes and yen appreciation will trigger arbitrage positions to reduce high-beta assets, with ETH bearing the initial pressure, followed by collective altcoin sell-offs. As long as USD/JPY continues downward, global risk appetite will struggle to fully recover. 2. This Wednesday’s US CPI is the market watershed (the biggest variable) ETF inflows are endogenous positives but will be overshadowed by inflation data: • If CPI inflation rebounds and rate hike expectations restart, US Treasury yields will rise. Even with continued ETF inflows, the crypto market will struggle to produce strong bullish candles, increasing risks of high-level volatility and pullbacks. #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn