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🔥 Oil is cooling down. But is the biggest risk actually gone? I’m Cige. The Strait of Hormuz negotiations appear to be moving in the right direction. U.S. officials say progress has been made and expect commercial shipping to resume soon, potentially alongside the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports. The market reacted before the ink was even dry. This week, WTI fell 1.32% to $76.35, while Brent dropped 1.54% to $81.50. At the same time, speculative net-long positions in oil have continued to decline. But here’s the catch: the deal isn’t official yet. Iran says no concessions have been made in the memorandum negotiations. And even if an agreement is reached, there are still major questions around passage rules, sanctions, and shipping insurance. So the market may already be pricing in a smooth reopening of Hormuz. The real question is whether commercial ships can actually pass through consistently. If implementation runs smoothly, the geopolitical risk premium in oil could continue to unwind. If negotiations break down or restrictions remain, oil could quickly regain that premium. 🟠 What does this mean for BTC? This is where things get interesting. Lower oil prices mean less pressure on inflation. Combine that with weaker nonfarm payroll data and a reduced probability of further rate hikes, and BTC gets a double tailwind: Lower geopolitical risk + softer inflation expectations = better risk appetite. That helps explain why Bitcoin has continued consolidating around $65,000 with a short-term bullish bias. But don't confuse a positive headline with a confirmed trend. If the Hormuz agreement falls apart, oil could spike again, inflation expectations could rise, and risk assets—including BTC—could come under pressure. 📊 The levels I'm watching Bullish scenario: BTC breaks and holds above $65,500 → potential targets at $66,000–$66,500. Bearish scenario: BTC loses $64,500 → watch $63,500–$64,000 for support confirmation. #DailyOrbit