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8/10 Macro Daily Report 1. Middle East Situation: Iran Advances Legislation, Israel's Stance Fluctuates The draft Hormuz Strait Act has been approved in principle by Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee. Key points include: banning passage of US and hostile countries' vessels; prohibiting transit of Israeli dual-use military and civilian goods; imposing fines up to 20% of the cargo value for violations; requiring the party causing damage to compensate before passage can be restored; navigation, monitoring, and security responsibilities unified under the Iranian Armed Forces. Personnel changes worth noting: Zolghadr reassigned as political advisor to the Supreme Leader, Rezaei appointed Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council—Rezaei previously warned that if the US opens a non-Iranian main navigation route in the Strait, it will be considered a target, signaling a hawkish stance with his promotion. However, the US attitude has clearly softened. Trump stated he is "handling the Iran issue quietly," favoring economic pressure over military intervention. US officials revealed that if Iran's nuclear program is controllable and the Strait reopens to navigation, Trump is more likely to indefinitely extend the current ceasefire. Israel's position has been inconsistent: Netanyahu once agreed to a limited withdrawal from three areas near Rafah in Gaza but suddenly reversed on the 9th, rejecting the US "peace committee" plan; simultaneously reallocating 850 million new shekels originally for Intel, adding 1 billion new shekels for emergency military purchases, raising the defense budget to a historic high of 184 billion new shekels. Geopolitical risks have not truly eased, merely shifting in the short term from "military confrontation" to "diplomatic tug-of-war + economic pressure." Oil prices reacted sharply to #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn