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Why do two optical modules behave so differently, with Zhongji Xuchuang plummeting while Lumentum rises? Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price fell from a high of ¥1416.88 to ¥850.05. Even though its performance and technology are absolutely leading in the industry, market funds avoid risks when facing policy expectations such as the FCC ban or overseas restrictions. Lumentum $LITE , on the other hand, violently rebounds. The market logic is very simple and crude if Chinese optical module manufacturers face order restrictions or compliance risks, the North American local supply chain represented by Lumentum will inevitably take over the overflow orders and capacity gaps. Some bloggers adopt an ostrich mentality after being trapped: they believe that giants like Nvidia are extremely dependent on China's optical module delivery capabilities and cost advantages, and that the US government dares not truly cut them off. They think the strong demand from the AI computing power revolution can override regulatory rules. The market is ruthless. History repeatedly proves that when regulations and laws are truly implemented or give clear signals, the capital market prices according to survival and compliance logic. Capital would rather accept higher short-term procurement costs and slower delivery than face policy black swans. If I had to choose tech stocks to buy, I would only buy $smh, not A-share tech stocks. Every time is different, but actually every time is the same. Howard Marks wrote a passage in "The Most Important Thing" that says: "Sometimes, when an uptrend or downtrend has lasted a long time and reached an extreme, people start saying 'this time is different.' They bring up geopolitics, institutional changes, technological revolutions, behavioral shifts, saying the old rules are outdated. Then they make investment decisions based on recent trends. However, subsequent results prove that the old rules still apply, and the cycle restarts. Trees don’t grow to the sky, and very few things go to zero, but most phenomena are cyclical." #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn