Publikovat

The most dangerous thing for ETH now is not a fall. But everyone is waiting for it to rise. Recently, when I read the comments section, I can see a sentence almost every day: After BTC's rise, it's time for ETH. That sounds reasonable. But there's a problem with the deal. The logic that everyone knows is often the hardest to make money. BTC has been supported by ETF funds during this period, and the story of institutional allocation has not stopped. What about ETH? The market has been talking about ETFs, RWAs, stablecoins, and on-chain ecosystems. These stories are true. The problem is, these stories have been told for a long time. If an asset really wants to start a major upswing, the most important thing is not whether the story is good enough. It's about whether there's new money willing to continue raising prices. I've been looking at the ETH ETF data recently. There has been no panic withdrawal of funds, and some products have maintained net inflows in recent weeks. But it just makes me more cautious. Because the inflow of ETFs represents allocation demand, it does not mean that the short-term price will continue to rise. Many studies have found that ETF flows are more about confirming trends than creating them. What concept? The money is slowly coming in. But the price did not come out of the market that made all the bears surrender. At times like this, I won't rush to chase. Because the real danger is not a 5% drop in ETH. It's that everyone thinks: "It's going to make up for it sooner or later." One of the most likely ideas to lose money in trading is: The direction is right, and time must also be on your side. But the market never goes up just because everyone thinks it should go up. If BTC continues to move sideways and ETH is unable to move independently, then the first to collapse is not the trend. It's patience. A lot of people will start to doubt. They will start to reduce their stock. It will start cashing. So I'm not going to heavily pursue ETH now. It's not because I'm short on ETH.