المنشور

🇺🇸 US STOCKS REMAIN NEAR RECORD HIGHS AHEAD OF JULY CPI US equities are holding close to record levels as markets await July CPI data, while expectations for Fed rate hikes have eased following weaker-than-expected payrolls. 🛢️ Oil prices moved higher amid continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump appeared to favor economic pressure on Iran over direct military strikes. 📈 Long-duration equities advanced, while TSMC reported strong sales. S&P 2026 EPS estimates also continued to rise, now projected at roughly $361, representing around 30% YoY growth, with the index trading near 21.4x earnings. However, elevated valuations remain a concern, as equities currently offer little to no risk premium compared with 10-year Treasury yields. ⚠️ We remain cautious on $TSLA due to declining long-term earnings expectations, intensifying autonomous-vehicle competition, and its already stretched valuation. The key question now is whether strong earnings and AI investment can continue justifying these elevated market valuations. #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases