المنشور

The 30-year yield at a 19-year high should be compressing crypto multiples. That it isn't is worth sitting with. In 2022, rate pressure was the dominant force crushing BTC. That correlation has clearly weakened, and I think the change is more durable than a temporary blip. ETF inflows have shifted who actually owns bitcoin: the marginal buyer is now an institution with a multi-year horizon, not a retail trader pivoting on Fed headlines in real time. A market with that ownership profile digests macro shocks more slowly, but it also stalls on relief rallies. BTC at $63K while 30Y paper hits generational highs reads less like strength and more like a market waiting for the next genuine catalyst to move conviction in either direction. Not advice, just analysis. #OKXOrbit